BOOKS AND BOOK CHAPTERS

• Public Spending Policies In Latin America and the Caribbean: When Cyclicality Meets Rigidities (with Guillermo Vuletin) Forthcoming, 2024. Washington, DC: World Bank.[Link]

• The Promise of Integration: Opportunities in a Changing Global Economy (with Maloney, William Francis; Ianchovichina, Elena Ivanova; Vuletin, Guillermo; Beylis, Guillermo) Latin America and the Caribbean Economic Review; April 2023. Washington, DC: World Bank.[Link]

• New Approaches to Closing the Fiscal Gap. Latin America and the Caribbean Economic Review; October 2022.Washington, DC: World Bank. DOI: 10986/34602.[Link]

• The Economy in the Time of Covid-19. LAC Semiannual Report; April 2020.Washington, DC: World Bank. DOI: 10986/34602.[Link]

• Trade Integration as a Pathway to Development?. (with Rama, Martin, Ianchovichina, Elena Ivanova; Vuletin, Guillermo;) LAC Semiannual Report; October 2018. Washington, DC: World Bank.[Link]

• From Known Unknowns to Black Swans: How to Manage Risk in Latin America and the Caribbean. (with Vegh, Carlos A.; Vuletin, Guillermo; Medina, Juan Pablo; Friedheim, Diego; Morano, Luis; Venturi, Lucila) LAC Semiannual Report; October 2018. Washington, DC: World Bank.[Link]

• Public Spending: From Bigger to Better. (with Alejandro Izquierdo, Jorge Puig, and Guillermo Vuletin) in Izquierdo, Pessino and Vultein (eds.), Better Spending for Better Lives. IDB Development in the Americas (DIA) 2018.[Link]

• Spending and the Cycle. (with Alejandro Izquierdo, Jorge Puig, and Guillermo Vuletin) in Izquierdo, Pessino and Vultein (eds.), Better Spending for Better Lives. IDB Development in the Americas (DIA) 2018.[Link]

• Fiscal Adjustment in Latin America and the Caribbean: Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain? (with Carlos Vegh, Guillermo Vuletin) LAC Semiannual Report; April 2018. Washington, DC: World Bank.[Link]

• Fiscal Multipliers in Latin America, (with Carlos Vegh and Guillermo Vuletin).  Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Santiago, Chile, 2015.[Link]

• Liquidity and Foreign Asset Management Challenges for Latin American Countries (with Joshua Aizenman). Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Caputo & Roberto Chang (ed.), Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Policy, edition 1, volume 22, chapter 4, pages 091-134 Central Bank of Chile.
• WP Version Available for download as NBER working paper 20646 [Link]

• Euro Crises. The Blackwell Encyclopedia of Globalization, 2012 [Link]

 

JOURNAL PUBLICATIONS

• Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Commodity Price Shocks During Civil Wars (with Thorsten Janus). Defense and Peace Economics, 35(5), 622–637. 2023 [Link]

• Fooled by the Cycle: Permanent versus Cyclical Improvements in Social Indicators (with joint with José Andrée Camarena, Luciana Galeano, Luis Morano, Jorge Puig, Carlos Vegh, Lucila Venturi, Guillermo Vuletin). Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 127, October 2022 [Link]
• WP Version Available for download as NBER working paper 26199 [Link]

• Commodity Terms of Trade Shocks and Political Transitions (with Thorsten Janus and Brittany Tarufelli). Economics and Politics, Volume 34, Issue3, Pages 465-493 November 2022. [Link]

• Non-linear distortion-based effect of tax changes on output: A worldwide narrative approach (joint with Samara Gunter, Guillermo Vuletin, and Carlos Vegh).  Journal of International Economics, Volume 131, July 2021 [Link]
• WP Version available for download as: NBER WP26570.Decembeer 2019 [Link]

• Catalytic IMF? A Gross Flows Approach (joint with Aitor Erce). Revisions Requested Journal of Money Credit and Banking
• WP Version available for download as: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute. Working Paper No. 255 [Link]

• Controlling for Import Price Effects in Civil War Regressions (with Thorsten Janus). Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 24(2), pages 1-7, May 2018.[Link]

• Tax policy and the macroeconomy: Measurement, identification, and non-linearities (with Carlos Vegh and Guillermo Vuletin). Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Vol. 35 (April 2017), pp. 10-17.[Link]

• Desafíos del Manejo de la Liquidez y de los Activos Internacionales en Latinoamérica,(with Joshua Aizenman) Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 18(2), pages 62-96, August 2016 [Link]

• Tax Multipliers: Pitfalls in identification and measurement of Fiscal shocks. (joint with Guillermo Vuletin and Carlos Vegh). Journal of Monetary Economics Volume 79, pages 30-48, 2016 [Link]
• WP Version Available for download as NBER working paper 18497 [Link]

• Real Exchange Rate Volatility,Economic Growth and the Euro, (joint with Thorsten Janus). Journal of Economic Integration, 2015 March; 30(1):148-171[Link]

• Economic Shocks, Civil War and Ethnicity, (joint with Thorsten Janus). Journal of Development Economics. Volume 115, Pages 32–44, 2015.[Link]

• Procyclical and countercyclical fiscal multipliers: Evidence from OECD countries, (joint with Guillermo Vuletin and Carlos Vegh). Journal of International Money and Finance Volume 52, April 2015, Pages 15–31 [Link]
• WP Version Available for download as NBER working paper 20533 [Link]

• Output Effects of Gross Foreign Investment Reversals (joint with Thorsten Janus).  Oxford Economic Papers, 2014; doi: 10.1093/oep/gpu048. [Link]

• Macronutrients and Obesity: A Time Series Analysis, (joint with Nathan Tefft), Economics and Human Biology, Volume 14, July 2014, Pages 33–49. [Link]

• Understanding International Gross Capital Flows: New Uses of Balance Payments Data And Application to Financial Crises, (joint with Thorsten Janus), Journal of Policy Modeling, Volume 35, Issue 1, January–February 2013, Pages 16-28. [Link]
• WP Version Available for download as SCCIE WP 09-08

• Adjustment patterns to commodity terms of trade shocks: the role of exchange rate and international reserves policies, (Joint with Joshua Aizenman and Sebastian Edwards), Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 31, Issue 8, December 2012, Pages 1990-2016. [Link]
• WP Version Available for download as NBER working paper 17692 [Link]

• Real Exchange Rate and International Reserves in the Era of Growing Financial and Trade Integration(Joint with Joshua Aizenman). The Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2008, Vol. 90, No. 4, Pages 812-815. [Link]
  • WP Version Available for download as NBER working paper 12363 [Link]
  
  

BOXES AND POLICY REPORTS

• Tax hikes are not always contractionary. (Joint with Carlos Vegh, Guillermo Vuletin, and Samara Gunter) VOXEU Column, 01 May 2019

• On Known Unknowns and Unknowns Unknowns: Managing Risk in Emerging Markets, Econbrowser, January 2019

• On risk and black swans in developing countries (Joint with Carlos Vegh, Guillermo Vuletin, Juan Pablo Medina, Diego Friedheim, Luis Morano, Lucila Venturi Grosso) Development Talk, World Bank blog, January 2019

• On risk and black swans in emerging markets, (Joint with Carlos Vegh, Guillermo Vuletin, Juan Pablo Medina, Diego Friedheim, Luis Morano, Lucila Venturi Grosso) VOXEU Column, 14 November 2018

• Revenue mobilization in commodity-rich countries: Challenges and opportunities, (with Samara Gunter, Carlos Vegh and Guillermo Vuletin). Box in Amadou Sy (editor), Foresight Africa 2017, African Growth Initiative, The Brookings Institution, Brookings Press, 2016.

• What can fiscal multipliers tell us about fiscal policy options? (with Alejandro Izquierdo, Carlos Vegh and Guillermo Vuletin). Box in Angel Melguizo (editor), Latin American Economic Outlook 2017, OECD Press, 2016.

• Fiscal multipliers: It’s all about timing and expenditure composition, (with Alejandro Izquierdo, Carlos Vegh and Guillermo Vuletin). Box in Andrew Powell (editor), 2016 Latin American and Caribbean Macroeconomic Report. Time to Act: Latin America and the Caribbean Facing Strong Challenges, Chapter 3, pp. 28-29, Inter-American Development Bank Press, 2016.

• Liquidity and Foreign Asset Management Challenges for Latin American Countries (Joint with Joshua Aizenman) VOXEU Column, November 2014

• How much do International Reserves buffer Terms-of-Trade Shocks? (Joint with Joshua Aizenman and Sebastian Edwards) VOXEU Column 7525, January 2012

 

WORKING PAPERS

• Policy implications of non-linear distortion-based effects of tax changes on output (joint with Samara Gunter, Guillermo Vuletin, and Carlos Vegh). World Bank Policy Research Working Papers (Forthcoming)

• Fiscal multipliers in good and bad times: Does it matter whether government spending is going up or down? (joint with Guillermo Vuletin and Carlos Vegh).  World Bank Policy Research Working Papers #6993, July 2014

• Banking Crises, External Turmoil and the Role of Gross Foreign Investment Reversals (joint with Thorsten Janus). Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute. Working Paper No. 273

• Price discrimination and competition in two-sided markets: Evidence from the Spanish local TV industry, (Joint with Ricard Gil and Christian Ruzzier) [Link]
• WP Version Available for download: IESE Research Papers D/894, IESE Business School, 2011[Link]

• The Output Effect of Reversals from Persistent External Imbalances; Two Case Studies: Mexico and South Korea. UCSC Mimeo 2008

• Persistent Episodes of Current Account Imbalances: An Empirical Analysis. UCSC Mimeo 2007

• Economic Shocks and Battle Deaths in Civil Wars(Joint with Thorsten Janus), 2018 [Link]
  Online appendices available here: [Link]