By Oliver Wolf
Opinion Columnist

As we embark on the 2004 presidential election, many of us often find ourselves looking to the recent past to see historical patterns for how to predict this November’s outcome. Factors such as the healthcare, national defense, education, party affiliation, and overall popularity influence how the populace will vote come November. Though I would argue that each one of these factors perhaps has taken a backseat to the economy in every single presidential election throughout my lifetime.

I wanted to briefly take you through some telling elections from the past decade. In the ’92 election, a major reason Bill Clinton triumphed over President George H. W. Bush was ultimately because Bush was widely seen as aloof, who ignored domestic and economic interests too much for his own good. Not coincidentally, the economy fell and the populace looked to Bush as the one blame.

The ’96 election is perhaps the most telling example. Former U.S. Senator Bob Dole was the Republican candidate facing a popular President Clinton who was presiding over a prosperous economy. Dole recently wrote in The New York Times: “Ten years ago, when I was thinking about running for President, former President Nixon discussed President Clinton’s strengths and weakness…near the end, [he] gave me his ultimate advice: if the economy if generally good, you are likely to lose.” Dole tried to make the economy look like it was doing poorly, when in reality it was quite strong; most Americans saw themselves as prosperous and consequently voted for Clinton’s re-election.

Ten years later, Senator John Kerry is in the same position as Senator Dole challenging an incumbent President in this regard. If Kerry is to win in November, he’ll have to convince the populace that the economy is not doing as well as it really is. Considering the facts we received four days ago, Senator Kerry will have a difficult time articulating this message.

Friday, April 2nd brought refreshing and encouraging news to Americans across the country. We heard that in the past month, 308,000 jobs have been added—the highest monthly job growth figure since the spring of 2000. The unemployment rate has also fallen from 6.3% last June to 5.7% last month. This is a lower rate than the decade averages ever were in the 1970s, 80s, and 90s. Moreover, the unemployment rate has fallen in 45 of the 50 states in this past year.

These strong job numbers could seemingly produce consumer confidence. Hardly bad news, as historical patterns have shown consumer spending stimulates two-thirds of the economy. In this case, President Bush’s pro-growth policies and the tax cut he initiated through Congress have visibly affected jobs and the economy for the better.

President Bush related this job growth to how Americans can take advantage of this new opportunity in his weekly radio address this past Saturday. He said, “As our economy adds more jobs, we need to make sure all Americans are prepared to take advantage of new opportunity. We must help current workers and future workers learn the skills they need today and the years to come.”

Fortunately, in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, the largest district this side of the Mississippi River and where Bates is located, we have an exciting candidate for Congress who has been instrumental in providing jobs for Maine.

Brian Hamel is President & CEO of the Loring Development Authority, and has overseen the development of the Loring Commerce Centre in Limestone, ME since 1994. Under Hamel’s tenure, over 1,000 jobs have been created at Loring. Hamel has also led the redevelopment efforts of the former Loring Air Force Base for 10 years. After this military base closed down, 1,100 civilian jobs were lost, and Hamel is widely credited with replacing all of them, and even creating new ones.

Maine’s 2nd district has too often witnessed business closures, and many families have been forced to leave their home towns because there are no jobs. With Brian Hamel as our next U.S. representative, job growth can more fully return to the 2nd district. His leadership will help provide more prosperity for Americans across the country.

Certain elected officials indeed deserve credit in many cases for economic growth, for they have capability to de-regulate our vibrant businesses and give government revenue back to individuals and families. Moreover, it is the engine of capitalism and the entrepreneurial spirit deep-rooted in the American dream that really contributes to our recent job growth and prosperity. President Bush in this campaign, like President Clinton before him, has the facts on his side to persuade the American people. He has the opportunity to send the message to all Americans that today we are more prosperous than when he took office.


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