There is discrepancy between the individual rankings in each category because of different scenarios that could present themselves. For example, if the race comes down to a kick, then Gucc and Doogie have a higher probability of victory, while if it doesn't, they will probably finish further back. Tristan, on the other hand, while a highly unlikely victor, is likely to run a race indicative of his fitness level regardless of how the race plays out.
Upon first looking at these predictions, one may see the relatively high probability of victory awarded to Taska and Jamey and remark that the chance of either winning does not seem particularlgy convincing. Jamey, in particular, while in good shape, seems unlikely to lead the race and unlikely to have much closing speed. It must be pointed out that while these two top picks have a high probability relative to the other competitors, their predicted odds are still reasonably low. Indeed, there is only a projected 50.7% chance that one of the two will win, leaving much up in the air.
One of the more interesting potential outcomes is a Doogie victory. Doogie is prone to run unpredictably, but has had a remarkably good season, and has shown that he has perhaps the best closing speed in the field. Doogie could very well walk away with the win if the race is slow, or, as is more likely, if the front runners go out too hard and die, as Taska did last year. One could argue that Gucc and Squeak have a higher chance of victory in a kicker's race, as they may be more willing to put down a longer late race surge, while Doogie specializes in shorter kicks. Doogie seems to be in better shape than Gucc, however, and it could be that Gucc simply isn't in as good of striking distance by the end of the race. Squeak, on the other hand, is more prone to go out at a pace he can't handle and die early. Still, Squeak was given the spot ahead of Doogie in the projected order of finish because Doogie simply might not stay engaged in the middle of the race.
One might also call into question the absense of Stag, Stitch, and Elmo from the top of the predictions, given that under better circumstances, any one of the three could win convincingly. It seems that for the time being they are in nowhere close to the shape that they have achieved in the past. If any of the three read this article, however, please let it be stated that they should take what is said with a grain of salt and race with the confidence of the champions they are. |
