April 21, 1977
Page 11737
Mr. MUSKIE and Mr. HASKELL addressed the Chair.
The PRESIDING OFFICER. The Senator from Maine.
Mr. MUSKIE. Mr. President, if I might have the attention of our colleagues for about 30 seconds.
The PRESIDING OFFICER. Will the Senate be in order?
Mr. MUSKIE. I shall make an observation about this bill from the point of view of the budget. Senators ought to bear in mind as we proceed the effect of the vote that we just took was to add $2 billion to the 1978 deficit which is projected in the first concurrent resolution for 1978, which is at the desk, so votes like this have the effect of increasing the deficit for a budget resolution we have not yet considered.
Any other tax reductions in addition to those in this bill which carry over to 1978 will add to that deficit. It is the prerogative of the Senate to do that. But I think it ought not to be done blindly. I wish Senators to understand that is the effect, and it may well be that we may have to take the budget resolution back to committee if the results of our actions on this bill accumulate the deficit. When I say this I am not being critical of any Senator's vote on the issue we have just considered. But there are budget implications, and I think Senators ought to know what they are. That is all I wanted to say while a number of Senators are in the Chamber.
Mr. LONG. Mr. President, I shall respond for a moment to the admonition of the chairman of the Budget Committee while Senators are here.
It has been my experience that when the chairman of the Budget Committee favors an amendment the budget problem is never a problem. If it puts us $50 billion in the red — $20 billion, not $50 billion — $20 billion in the red that is something that can be accommodated. But if the chairman is against the amendment, if it costs 5 cents that is going to bankrupt the country.
We recall the experience that we had when we were voting on the Tax Reform Act last year. We were admonished, admonished, and admonished that the Tax Reform Act was going to bankrupt the country, because we were told that it was unrealistic to assume that Congress would ever dare to bring an end to those temporary tax cuts including the $35 tax credit. The reason it was unrealistic so soon was that the chairman of the Budget Committee led the charge to knock out the part that would balance the bill, so that having led the charge to knock out the part that would bring to an end the temporary tax cuts, he made it unrealistic to assume that that would be a balanced bill. Then the chairman himself—
Mr. MUSKIE. Mr. President, will the Senator yield?
Mr. LONG. I will yield in a moment.
Then the chairman himself, as well as members of his committee, proceeded to vote for amendment after amendment on that bill that made that a further unbalanced bill to the extent that when the bill was finally voted on as chairman of the committee I offered an amendment to save it that said to the Senate that we ought to try to bring back confidence to a bill that pretty well balanced things out as far as we could. That is what we did do.
So the budget balancing, after all that conversation about ending the budget process, was done in the same old traditional fashion, by the conferees from the Senate, the senior members of the Finance Committee, going to conference with their counterparts from the House Ways and Means Committee to try to work things out the best they could, to meet all the budgetary problems one might anticipate and consider.
We are now in a $10 billion better position than we were, by the administration's own bookkeeping — a $10 billion better position than we were when the chairman was advocating that we vote for the $50 tax rebate, which would have cost $11 billion. So we are $21 billion better off than the chairman anticipated we were going to be. I know he is concerned about 1978, but I would urge him to realize that there are some of us in addition to the chairman who are interested in seeing that this Nation remains fiscally solvent, and we are going to work toward that end. But when you try to tell a Senator he cannot offer an amendment here, that is something this Senator cannot prevent any more than the chairman of the Budget Committee can prevent it.
Mr. MUSKIE Mr. President, will the Senator yield?
Mr. LONG. Yes.
Mr. MUSKIE. I do not know what I did to enrage the Senator from Louisiana. All I did was state a simple fact, and as I see it, I have a duty as chairman of the Budget Committee to state facts. I do not try to restrain anyone from offering an amendment, but let the facts speak for themselves.
I do not intend to get into another hassle with the chairman of the Finance Committee over what we did last year. I think the Senator has confused his history a little bit, but that is his prerogative.
All I am saying is that in the budget resolution that is not more than 2 weeks old, we had a deficit projected in that budget resolution of $63.2 billion, and that according to the same computation, the addition of the investment tax credit and the job tax credit in this bill would add $2 billion to that deficit.
That is a simple statement of fact. Now, with respect to the $10 billion figure which the President used a week and a half ago to justify the $50 tax rebate, let me say to the Senate as a whole what I said earlier to the distinguished chairman of the Finance Committee when he made the same point, when only four of us were on this floor: The fact is that in fiscal year 1976, with the best estimating that OMB, CBO, and the Budget Committees could make, actual spending in fiscal year 1976 was less than the spending we had projected. The same thing happened in the transition quarter. The same thing happened in this fiscal year in October, November, December, January, and February.
But it turned around in March. There is no basis for anybody to conclude that as of October 1, spending for this year will be $10 billion less than the spending that we projected in the Third Concurrent Budget Resolution which Congress adopted in February. If it is, I would think the taxpayers would be grateful. I do not think the taxpayers would be grateful it we assume that there is $10 billion in that budget that will not otherwise be spent, that we can begin spending now. What we may then face on October 1 is the disappearance of that $10 billion and the addition of additional deficits, because we rationalized with every spending bill or every revenue bill that last month's spending was not up to snuff.
That is the old method. That is the old method that I remember so well. When spending bills come to the floor—
Mr. LONG. Mr. President, who has the floor?
Mr. MUSKIE. Spending bills come to the floor, and the Senator says, "This is all right, this is within the budget."
How did we write the budget? Bill by bill by bill.
The PRESIDING OFFICER. The Senator from Louisiana has the floor.
Mr. MUSKIE. I am sorry I cannot finish my thought.
Mr. LONG. Mr. President, I would like to finish my statement; then the Senator can have the floor as far as I am concerned. I just want to finish my part of it.
As it stands now, by the administration's estimate, we have $7 billion more money on hand, that has not been spent, than had been anticipated. We have $3 billion more in revenues than had been anticipated. That makes us $10 billion better off.
For the fiscal year we are in, we also have the benefit of the fact that the $50 rebate has been removed. That is $11 billion. That makes us $21 billion better off than we had estimated.
Now, the Senator from Maine now wants to talk about the fact that the bookkeeping might not be exact, the way he would like to see it, come 1978. Well, Mr. President, the President just got through last night recommending a whole host of new taxes, running into at least $25 billion of taxes, that he would like for us to vote by 1978. 1 think he was optimistic if he thinks we are going to vote the whole $25 billion; but he will not be completely disappointed. We are going to vote some of those taxes which the President recommended last night.
Everyone knows the budget resolution for 1978 is not binding until we vote the second resolution. I have managed tax bills before. I have managed big tax bills before. I have seen Senators put amendment after amendment on the bill, to where someone would wonder whether we were absolutely going to run out of all the money the printing press could print before we finished amending the bill. But by the time the bill went to conference and the differences were worked out between the Senate and the House, the bills have come out with a balance everyone thought we could live with, including the administration.
So I am not concerned to the degree the Senator from Maine is worried that every time we vote for an amendment someone does not agree with, that is going to destroy the country. We may very well have offered on this bill, for example, an amendment to implement the countercyclical program with another $2 billion. We may agree to it, or we may not. But at this point no one can say we are going to spend all the money the President would like to spend, just as no one can say we are going to put on all the taxes the President would like to put on.
But I remember last year, when the chairman of the Budget Committee led a fight to break the budget, we found that it is possible to work out the overall package to bring it within whatever targets we may want to insist on here.
I, of course, welcome the right of the Senator to advise us amendment by amendment with regard to what he thinks this would do with regard to 1978, or any year. But I point out that the Senator has been known to support a lot of things that could break the budget, because he favored the amendments.
I think Senators should, when they think an amendment is a good amendment, vote for it, or if they think it is a bad amendment not vote for it, and let their conscience be their guide.
Mr. CURTIS. Mr. President, will the Senator yield?
Mr. LONG. I yield.
Mr. CURTIS. I have great respect for the Budget Committee. I think it is made up of eminent gentlemen, dedicated to their task. But after all, they have a very big job. There is a deficit of $50 billion, $60 billion, or $70 billion. We will never bring it into balance by fine tuning or asserting jursidiction over the tax law. What the country is waiting for is for the Budget Committee to bring in some recommendations to lessen the size of our Government.
How are we going to get rid of a $60 billion deficit? Only by having less Government.
I do not care about what kind of language was in there or what kinds of speeches were made, when the Budget Committee was created.
The fact remains the American people expect that committee to go to the task, look at our expenditures, and bring in a plan to cut them down, even if it reduces the size of Government, even if it takes certain benefits away, even if it discontinues certain programs.
Why do we have a Budget Committee? There was a time when the taxing committees were the appropriating committees. The job got too big so they divided it. Both groups carried on their work without any coordination or without the coordination they should have. Here we have vested in one committee the responsibility of bringing our budget under control.
Every time we have a tax bill there is a catastrophe about every amendment which the Finance Committee seems to have worked on for months.
Even if the will objecting to the Finance Committee prevailed it would not be a drop in the bucket on bringing this budget into balance. This budget can only be brought into balance by less expenditures, less programs, cutting down on some, postponing some, doing away with others entirely. It is either that or go on with the unbalanced budgets.
I know of no one who is realistic, who believes all of these projections that the experts put out that they will have a balanced budget in 1981, 1982, or 1983. That has been said for the last 50 years and we go on adding to our Government.
Last week or the week before last, an unemployment compensation bill was before the Senate.
We increased the obligation on the general budget by $1 billion for the next 2 years by transferring an obligation that had been carried by the unemployment tax over to the general budget.
We did not get any help from that mighty force that heads the Budget Committee. I must say, Senator BELLMON joined in it.
We have been on the floor before with bills to reduce.
Mr. President, we cannot go on housing people, feeding people, giving them everything, taking care of all their wants, paying medical bills for everybody over 65 just because they are 65, and then go on adding to the welfare state and pay for it under a private enterprise system. We cannot collect that much taxes.
I hope the Budget Committee will come to the rescue of our country and that they will attack the job that the country expects from them, to cut down on expenditures from the Treasury. After all, this tax amendment we are debating is for the benefit of taxpayers. It is their money. They earned it. I thank my chairman for yielding.
Several Senators addressed the Chair.
The PRESIDING OFFICER. The Senator from Colorado.
Mr. MORGAN. Mr. President, will the Senator yield for a unanimous consent request?
Mr. HASKELL. Mr. President, I yield to the Senator from North Carolina without losing my right to the floor.
Mr. MORGAN. Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that Mr. Harold Edwards and Mr. Robert Jackson, of my staff, be granted the privilege of the floor during the debate and votes on the pending measure.
The PRESIDING OFFICER. Without objection, it is so ordered.
Mr. MATSUNAGA. Mr. President, will the Senator from Colorado yield for a unanimous consent request?
Mr. HASKELL. I yield.
Mr. MATSUNAGA. Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that Vince Versage, of my staff, be granted the privilege of the floor during the consideration and votes on the pending measure.
The PRESIDING OFFICER. Without objection, it is so ordered.
Mr. BAYH. Mr. President, will the Senator yield?
Mr. HASKELL. I yield for a unanimous consent request.
Mr. BAYH. Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that Ann Church and Tom Connaughton be granted the privilege of the floor during the consideration and votes on H.R. 3477.
The PRESIDING OFFICER. Without objection, it is so ordered.
Mr. DANFORTH. Mr. President, will the Senator yield for a unanimous consent request?
Mr. HASKELL. I yield.
Mr. DANFORTH. Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that Nancy Altman, of my staff, be granted the privilege of the floor during the consideration of the pending legislation.
The PRESIDING OFFICER. Without objection, it is so ordered.
Mr. JAVITS. Mr. President, will the Senator yield for a unanimous consent request?
Mr. HASKELL. I yield.
Mr. JAVITS. Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that the following members of my staff be granted the privilege of the floor during the debate on this bill: Charles Warren and James O'Connell, as well as Gary Kuzina, of the Budget Committee.
The PRESIDING OFFICER. Without objection, it is so ordered.
Mr. DOMENICI. Mr. President, will the Senator yield for a unanimous consent request?
Mr. HASKELL. I yield.
Mr. DOMENICI. Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that Charles Gentry, of my staff, be granted the privilege of the floor during the consideration of the pending legislation.
The PRESIDING OFFICER. Without objection, it is so ordered.
Mr. MUSKIE. Mr. President, will the Senator yield?
Mr. HASKELL. Without losing my right to the floor, I yield 5 minutes to the Senator from Maine.
Mr. MUSKIE. Mr. President, as I have frequently said, and I think it should be repeated at this time, first, I want to assure the distinguished chairman of the Finance Committee and the ranking Republican that try as they may, they will not succeed in intimidating me from doing my job. We have only one discipline in the Budget Committee. I would be amazed if the Senator from Louisiana did not understand that. As a matter of fact, I think he understands it all too well. That is why he responded with such outrage to what I said earlier. We have only one discipline, the discipline of information. If I do not have that responsibility, I do not have any.
Second, the Senator and his colleagues can rail against me as much as they like for using the budget process to serve my own ends. The record will show that I have voted in committee and out to hold down spending on things I was interested in and I will continue to do so.
I believe the record will be an accurate reflection against the charges that the chairman of the Finance Committee has made this afternoon.
Mr. LONG. Will the Senator yield?
Mr. MUSKIE. I want to finish. It will not require 30 seconds.
The third point I make is I cannot see the Finance Committee, its chairman and ranking member, are any different than any other Senator. They would like to see the budget discipline apply to all the others but not to them. That is why the budget process was created in the first place, because on our separate authorizing committees we have a tendency to get committed to particular programs, to particular policies, and we lose the perspective of the whole picture.
We are all fallible on the Budget Committee. We are all members of other committees. We are going to make mistakes, but this mistake we will not make as long as I am chairman. I can be displaced by the Democratic caucus in any caucus, as the Senator from Louisiana well knows.
As long as I am chairman, the Senate is going to get the facts, to the best of my ability. It can accept the facts or not. If the Senator from Louisiana thinks I am going to come to the floor after an action such as we took and say to the Senate, "That has no budget impact," or that these other amendments that are coming up have no budget impact, if the Senator regards that as a proper discharge of the duties of the chairman of the Budget Committee, then he is mistaken.
Mr. LONG. Will the Senator yield?
Mr. MUSKIE. I yield.
Mr. LONG. Let me say if I wounded the Senator's feelings I want to apologizeto the Senator because I love him.
Mr. MUSKIE. The Senator has not wounded my feelings.
Mr. LONG. I think the Senator is a great American. I am proud of him. I love him. I am proud to be the Senator's friend, even though sometimes I know I irritate the Senator. He is a great American. Insofar as I may have offended him, I am sorry.
Let me say to the Senator it is my impression, and it does not make all that much difference whether I am right or wrong but it is my impression, that the bill we reported out of this committee was known to the Budget committee, and the budget resolution at the desk takes into account everything we have in this bill that is sitting here.
Mr. MUSKIE. Would the Senator like me to respond to that?
Mr. LONG. Yes.
Mr. MUSKIE. The bill, when it was originally reported out — and if the Senator will look at the prepared statement I placed in the RECORD today I complimented the Senator and the Finance Committee on its facts when it was reported out — before the withdrawal of the tax rebate, was in full accord with the third concurrent budget resolution.
I know that the Senator made every effort to see that it was. But since that time, the $50 tax rebate has been withdrawn. That has a negative impact on our budget projections. The result is that revenue estimates for fiscal year 1978 are lower than they would have been with the rebate. In addition to that, we must project increases in unemployment compensation benefits and other trust fund benefits for that reason.
The projection is that killing the $50 tax rebate can result in increased unemployment on the order of 250,000 by the end of the 1978 fiscal year. That has to be taken into account in revenue projections and in spending projections.
So, although the tax bill, when it was reported out, met the criteria of the third concurrent resolution and the 1978 resolution, there was a change in circumstances which changed it.
Now, in our haste to move this tax bill along, maybe I too quickly agreed to this schedule before we had fully judged and evaluated the budget implications of what had happened. If I were hasty in that respect, I regret it, but I cannot change that. The bill is here. We have to consider it.
I have no objection, may I say to the Senator, to the Senate voting any way it wishes on these amendments. That is the Senate's prerogative, it is not mine. But the Senate ought to understand when it votes for these things that unless, somewhere down the line, as the Senator suggests, that action is eliminated in conference or elsewhere — and I cannot anticipate that — the budget implications will be thus and so.
That is all I am trying to do, and I think I made that statement unemotionally at the time. I have gotten a little bit heated since because the Senator has a way of heating the atmosphere on this floor. I guess I have a little of that talent myself.
In any case, all I was trying to do is state a neutral fact so that, as the Senators consider these other amendments that are coming down the line, they take that fact into consideration. If they still want to vote for the amendment, God bless them; let them do it. I have no power to prevent them.
I say on a personal note to the Senator that the Senator knows that, althought we do clash on the floor from time to time, I am very fond of him personally. Our relationship goes back a lot longer than most people realize. I have never had reason to regret knowing him and enjoying his own talent for histrionics and his own talent for companionship, and, above all, his storytelling ability.
My role is not a storytelling role. My role is a fact telling role, and I do the best I can, I say to the Senator. I hope I do not give preference to the things I am interested in. I hope any time I do or appear to do that, the Senator will hold my feet to the fire, because I do not wish to do that.
Mr. LONG. Will the Senator yield to me?
Mr. HASKELL. I yield 3 minutes to the Senator from Louisiana.
Mr. LONG. Let me say to the Senator from Maine that I think I better understand what the Senator's understanding and logic is at this moment. He is saying that when the $50 rebate was withdrawn, that required the Budget Committee to assume that business conditions next year will not be as good as they are this year and that there will be more unemployment. Therefore, while doing that resulted in a more favorable budget situation for now and a smaller deficit by about $11 billion, it would probably result in a less favorable situation in the following fiscal year. The result of that would be that, for fiscal year 1978, we might be about $2 billion worse off than this committee had anticipated.
Is that correct?
Mr. MUSKIE. Let me state it another way, though that is essentially correct.
The whole purpose of the $50 tax rebate was to stimulate the economy. Without the stimulus, the economy is bound to be less viable than with it. As a matter of fact, it is for that reason, as I understand the President, that he has withdrawn it, because he says we do not need the stimulus and, if we keep it, we may overheat the economy. So it is not necessarily a projection as to the state of the economy a year from now, but what it would be with or without the stimulus.
(At this point Senator LEAHY assumed the Chair.)
Mr. LONG. My point is that while I did not fully understand how the Senator arrived at the conclusion that a bill which we reported, which we thought had been cleared with the Budget Committee and which we had reason to believe was fully within what the Budget Committee was expecting, suddenly became one that was more than a billion dollars beyond the 1978 fiscal year estimate. I believe I now understand the Senator's logic.
Let me say that if, through a combination of circumstances, it be the judgment of the Senate that we will reduce the deficit in fiscal year 1977 by $11 billion and if that set of circumstances should result in a greater deficit of $2 billion by 1978, as far as the national debt is concerned, we would still be 39 billion better off than was originally anticipated. I would think if that were the circumstance, those who are concerned about the fiscal solvency of this Government would feel that the logical thing for the Senate to do, having made those decisions, would be to reduce the deficit in fiscal 1977 in its assumption and increase the projected deficit for the following year. I think that this is the same Senate, even though there might be one committee looking at one item and another committee looking at another. Whatever the combined judgment of the Senate might be, I should think that the Senate would be willing to accommodate itself to whatever the Senate decides it ought to do about these bills, having had the best information that all Senators can offer.
Would the Senator agree with that?
Mr. MUSKIE. Yes, but I would suggest that—
The PRESIDING OFFICER (Mr. ZORINSKY) The Senator from Colorado has the floor and has yielded 4 minutes, which has expired.
Mr. HASKELL. I yield an additional 2 minutes to the Senator from Maine.
Mr. MUSKIE. In the first place, the $11 billion number is not strictly accurate, but that is a detail for the moment. The table that I put in the RECORD will give harder figures.
But, yes, of course, it is possible, and the Senate should be willing to change its economic assumptions and its economic policy on the basis of changes in circumstances and on the basis of the most recent information. All I am saying is that when a change has taken place, it is my job to tell the Senate what it is.
Secondly, it would seem to me to be preferable to make the changes through the process that has been created for that purpose than to do it ad hoc on the Senate floor.
The Senate, of course, would vote on tax amendments on the Senate floor, but to try on the Senate floor to change the economic assumptions of the Congress budget policy, I think, is very risky business, indeed, because there are as many variations in philosophy on that score as there are Senators, as the Senator knows.
I think that the Senator and I are at least looking at the same picture at the moment and are in a position to discuss it at the moment.
I do not want to delay my good friend from Colorado from presenting his amendment. I want to assure him that his amendment is not any particular target of mine. I do not know what it is yet or whether I shall be for it or against it. I understand it is designed to improve something and I am all for improvement. I know the Senator is, so I may be for his amendment when I see it.
I think the Senator from Louisiana, after laboring as we have for almost a year now to understand each other on this budget process, may be beginning to close the gap in our understanding. If we are, I am delighted.